Raising Islands--Hawai'i Science and Environment.

"Economic chaos underway, consumers see it, the numbers tell the story."

Views expressed in this science and technology update are those of the reporters and correspondents. Accessed on 27 April 2025, 2225 UTC.

Content and Source provided by science-technology writer Jan TenBruggencate.

https://raisingislands.blogspot.com/2025/04/economic-chaos-underway-consumers-see.html

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Russ Roberts (https://hawaiisciencejournal.blogspot.com).

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Economic chaos underway, consumers see it, the numbers tell the story.

There are fewer ships on the oceans today than a couple of months ago, a disturbing data point on the economy.

That’s thanks to the U.S. Administration’s chaotic tariff posture.

It seems clear that in the coming weeks, the Administration’s turbulent economic posture will translate to significantly higher prices. And also dramatically less inventory available to American consumers.

Consumers see it coming. Consumer sentiment has dropped to a historic low.

The value of the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies has dropped, meaning everything we buy from aboard costs more, and when we travel, our money buys less.

Investors Business Daily has a report today that China-to-North American shipping cancellations have reached 50%.

Right now, container unloading in U.S. ports is higher than normal, due to a rush of advance orders meant to beat the tariffs. But the coming drop in shipping arrivals will far outpace the temporary increase.

“Major ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach have recently seen increased activity as companies rushed goods before new tariffs. However, forward bookings indicate falling demand,” reports the British firm Containerlift.

Those kinds of drops in cargo volume will economically hit American ports, trucking companies and trains before they impact store shelves and eventually consumers.

It is not just imports to the U.S., but also exports from the U.S. American farmers are hit extremely hard. In the week of April 11-17, according to the USDA, pork exports were down 72%, soy down 50%, corn down 26%, cotton down 49%, beef down 41%. A few exports (rice, sorghum) were up, but the trend was way down.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) anticipates by the end of the year a 12.6% drop in North American exports.

U.S. manufacturing is down, and there are thousands of layoffs at manufacturing plants.

None of this is good for our country.

But other countries will continue to trade with each other without the direct impact of the American trade tariffs. That’s why, although the global economy is expected to be hit by the American trade chaos, it will be hit far less severely than the U.S. and its biggest direct trading partners.

The WTO is estimating worldwide merchandise trade to take just a .2% hit.

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Raising Islands: What's in a name?

Raising Islands.

I borrow the name of this blog, gratefully and with permission, from my friend Nainoa Thompson. He uses the term “raising islands out of the sea” to create in the mind the experience of a voyaging canoe coming up on a distant shore, and of watching distant peaks rise out of the sea as the canoe approaches.

The first time I did it with him, our vehicle was the voyaging canoe Hokule'a and the island was Nihoa. I recall the crew's thrill at dawn, seeing the twin peaks of the island appear, and then the saddle between them, and finally the whole island. Thompson was the non-instrument navigator who had brought us there using only stars, clouds, wind, seas, birds and other cues.

The name of this blog also invokes the idea of responsibility—raising as lifting up, as caring for and conserving.

The key to responsibility is understanding. If we are to care for these islands, we need the kind of understanding of the environment that a traditional navigator needs.

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